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由死亡数与康复数推算的康复率,看国际上COVID-19(2019-nCov)康复情况的好与坏

当前康复数除以当前死亡数与康复数之和,即可得到当前推算的康复率。该值越到后期越接近真实值,并最终等于真实值。

这个数值不会受到短期确诊激增案例数影响,只会跟踪在经过一段时间的治疗后确诊患者要么死亡,要么康复,才会反映到该数值。在排除数据较少该数值数据波动大和在大数据的情况下,比如大于100的康复数或者死亡数的情况下,这个数值会比康复率或者死亡率能更快更早反映疾病的治疗情况。根据中国疫情的经验,这个数值在中期大数据的情况下会处于低值,然后随着患者的减少,该数值会逐渐增大。

在死亡数不为0的情况下,康复数除以死亡数的数值的表示意义是跟踪确诊后的患者康复情况,有一个患者死亡就会有多少个患者康复。这个数值越大越表示康复情况更好,反之则说明情况更糟糕。

死亡数除以康复数的数值也能反映康复情况,在康复数不为0的情况下,这个数值的表示意义是跟踪确诊后的患者康复情况,有一个患者康复就会有多少个患者死亡,这个数值越小越表示康复情况更好,反之则说明情况更糟糕。

我们看下bnonews发布的,日期是截至2020-04-05疫情数据情况:

全球

WORLD Cases Deaths Recovered Recovered divided by Deaths Recovered divided by Deaths pushback Recovered rate pushback Deaths rate
United States 308,412 8,739 12,594 1.44 0.69 59.04% 40.96%
Spain 126,168 11,947 34,219 2.86 0.35 74.12% 25.88%
Italy 124,632 15,362 20,996 1.37 0.73 57.75% 42.25%
Germany 96,374 1,446 34,925 24.15 0.04 96.02% 3.98%
China 83,349 3,326 76,987 23.15 0.04 95.86% 4.14%
France 68,605 7,560 15,438 2.04 0.49 67.13% 32.87%
Iran 55,743 3,452 19,736 5.72 0.17 85.11% 14.89%
United Kingdom 41,903 4,313 135 0.03 31.95 3.04% 96.96%
Turkey 23,934 501 786 1.57 0.64 61.07% 38.93%
Switzerland 19,943 632 5,657 8.95 0.11 89.95% 10.05%
Belgium 18,431 1,283 3,247 2.53 0.40 71.68% 28.32%
Netherlands 16,627 1,651 32 0.02 51.59 1.90% 98.10%
Canada 13,849 231 2,460 10.65 0.09 91.42% 8.58%
Austria 11,589 186 2,507 13.48 0.07 93.09% 6.91%
Portugal 10,524 266 75 0.28 3.55 21.99% 78.01%
Brazil 10,278 431 1 0.00 431.00 0.23% 99.77%
South Korea 10,156 177 6,325 35.73 0.03 97.28% 2.72%
Israel 7,589 43 427 9.93 0.10 90.85% 9.15%
Sweden 6,443 373 N/A        
Australia 5,550 30 701 23.37 0.04 95.90% 4.10%
Norway 5,519 62 N/A        
Russia 4,731 43 333 7.74 0.13 88.56% 11.44%
Ireland 4,604 137 N/A        
Czech Republic 4,362 59 78 1.32 0.76 56.93% 43.07%
Denmark 4,258 161 3 0.02 53.67 1.83% 98.17%
Chile 4,161 27 335 12.41 0.08 92.54% 7.46%
Poland 3,627 79 116 1.47 0.68 59.49% 40.51%
Romania 3,613 146 329 2.25 0.44 69.26% 30.74%
Japan 3,497 84 514 6.12 0.16 85.95% 14.05%
Malaysia 3,483 57 915 16.05 0.06 94.14% 5.86%
Ecuador 3,465 172 71 0.41 2.42 29.22% 70.78%
Philippines 3,094 144 57 0.40 2.53 28.36% 71.64%
India 3,076 77 237 3.08 0.32 75.48% 24.52%
Luxembourg 2,729 31 190 6.13 0.16 85.97% 14.03%
Pakistan 2,724 40 130 3.25 0.31 76.47% 23.53%
Saudi Arabia 2,179 29 420 14.48 0.07 93.54% 6.46%
Indonesia 2,092 191 150 0.79 1.27 43.99% 56.01%
Thailand 2,067 20 612 30.60 0.03 96.84% 3.16%
Mexico 1,688 60 35 0.58 1.71 36.84% 63.16%
Finland 1,882 20 10 0.50 2.00 33.33% 66.67%
Greece 1,673 68 52 0.76 1.31 43.33% 56.67%
Panama 1,673 41 13 0.32 3.15 24.07% 75.93%
Serbia 1,624 44 N/A        
Peru 1,746 73 447 6.12 0.16 85.96% 14.04%
South Africa 1,585 9 45 5.00 0.20 83.33% 16.67%
United Arab Emirates 1,505 10 125 12.50 0.08 92.59% 7.41%
Dominican Republic 1,488 68 16 0.24 4.25 19.05% 80.95%
Iceland 1,417 4 396 99.00 0.01 99.00% 1.00%
Colombia 1,406 32 85 2.66 0.38 72.65% 27.35%
Argentina 1,353 42 266 6.33 0.16 86.36% 13.64%
Qatar 1,325 3 109 36.33 0.03 97.32% 2.68%
Algeria 1,251 130 61 0.47 2.13 31.94% 68.06%
Singapore 1,189 6 297 49.50 0.02 98.02% 1.98%
Croatia 1,126 12 119 9.92 0.10 90.84% 9.16%
Ukraine 1,096 28 23 0.82 1.22 45.10% 54.90%
Egypt 1,070 71 241 3.39 0.29 77.24% 22.76%
Estonia 1,018 13 59 4.54 0.22 81.94% 18.06%
Slovenia 977 22 79 3.59 0.28 78.22% 21.78%
New Zealand 950 1 127 127.00 0.01 99.22% 0.78%
Morocco 883 58 65 1.12 0.89 52.85% 47.15%
Iraq 878 56 259 4.63 0.22 82.22% 17.78%
Hong Kong 863 4 186 46.50 0.02 97.89% 2.11%
Lithuania 771 9 7 0.78 1.29 43.75% 56.25%
Armenia 770 7 43 6.14 0.16 86.00% 14.00%
Moldova 752 12 29 2.42 0.41 70.73% 29.27%
Diamond Princess 712 11 619 56.27 0.02 98.25% 1.75%
Bahrain 688 4 423 105.75 0.01 99.06% 0.94%
Hungary 678 32 58 1.81 0.55 64.44% 35.56%
Bosnia 617 21 28 1.33 0.75 57.14% 42.86%
Tunisia 553 19 5 0.26 3.80 20.83% 79.17%
Kazakhstan 525 5 36 7.20 0.14 87.80% 12.20%
Azerbaijan 521 5 32 6.40 0.16 86.49% 13.51%
Lebanon 520 17 35 2.06 0.49 67.31% 32.69%
Cameroon 509 8 17 2.13 0.47 68.00% 32.00%
Latvia 509 0 N/A        
Bulgaria 503 17 34 2.00 0.50 66.67% 33.33%
North Macedonia 483 17 20 1.18 0.85 54.05% 45.95%
Kuwait 479 1 93 93.00 0.01 98.94% 1.06%
Slovakia 471 0 8   0.00   0.00%
Andorra 466 17 21 1.24 0.81 55.26% 44.74%
Belarus 440 5 46 9.20 0.11 90.20% 9.80%
Cyprus 426 13 33 2.54 0.39 71.74% 28.26%
Costa Rica 416 2 11 5.50 0.18 84.62% 15.38%
Uruguay 386 4 86 21.50 0.05 95.56% 4.44%
Taiwan 355 5 50 10.00 0.10 90.91% 9.09%
Burkina Faso 318 16 66 4.13 0.24 80.49% 19.51%
Jordan 310 5 58 11.60 0.09 92.06% 7.94%
Albania 333 18 99 5.50 0.18 84.62% 15.38%
Afghanistan 299 7 13 1.86 0.54 65.00% 35.00%
Oman 299 1 61 61.00 0.02 98.39% 1.61%
Cuba 288 6 15 2.50 0.40 71.43% 28.57%
Honduras 264 15 3 0.20 5.00 16.67% 83.33%
Uzbekistan 263 2 25 12.50 0.08 92.59% 7.41%
San Marino 259 32 27 0.84 1.19 45.76% 54.24%
Vietnam 240 0 90   0.00   0.00%
Senegal 219 2 72 36.00 0.03 97.30% 2.70%
Ivory Coast 218 1 19 19.00 0.05 95.00% 5.00%
Malta 213 0 2   0.00   0.00%
Nigeria 209 4 25 6.25 0.16 86.21% 13.79%
Ghana 205 5 3 0.60 1.67 37.50% 62.50%
Palestine 205 1 21 21.00 0.05 95.45% 4.55%
Mauritius 196 7 N/A        
Montenegro 194 2 N/A        
Sri Lanka 162 5 27 5.40 0.19 84.38% 15.63%
Georgia 157 1 27 27.00 0.04 96.43% 3.57%
Venezuela 153 7 43 6.14 0.16 86.00% 14.00%
DR Congo 148 16 3 0.19 5.33 15.79% 84.21%
Kyrgyzstan 144 1 9 9.00 0.11 90.00% 10.00%
Bolivia 139 10 2 0.20 5.00 16.67% 83.33%
Kosovo 135 1 16 16.00 0.06 94.12% 5.88%
Brunei 135 1 66 66.00 0.02 98.51% 1.49%
Kenya 126 4 4 1.00 1.00 50.00% 50.00%
Jersey 126 3 N/A        
Guernsey 114 2 13 6.50 0.15 86.67% 13.33%
Isle of Man 114 1 N/A        
Cambodia 114 0 49   0.00   0.00%
Trinidad and Tobago 100 6 1 0.17 6.00 14.29% 85.71%
Paraguay 96 3 12 4.00 0.25 80.00% 20.00%
Gibraltar 95 0 46   0.00   0.00%
Northern Cyprus 88 2 3 1.50 0.67 60.00% 40.00%
Rwanda 84 0 0        
Liechtenstein 75 0 N/A        
Niger 74 5 N/A        
Bangladesh 70 8 26 3.25 0.31 76.47% 23.53%
Monaco 60 1 2 2.00 0.50 66.67% 33.33%
Aruba 60 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Madagascar 59 0 0        
El Salvador 56 3 N/A        
Guinea 52 1 1 1.00 1.00 50.00% 50.00%
Guatemala 50 1 12 12.00 0.08 92.31% 7.69%
Djibouti 49 0 8   0.00   0.00%
Jamaica 47 2 2 1.00 1.00 50.00% 50.00%
Barbados 46 0 0        
Uganda 45 0 N/A        
Congo Republic 41 2 N/A        
Macau 41 0 10   0.00   0.00%
Togo 40 3 17 5.67 0.18 85.00% 15.00%
Mali 39 3 0 0.00   0.00%  
Zambia 39 1 0 0.00   0.00%  
French Polynesia 37 0 N/A        
Ethiopia 35 0 3   0.00   0.00%
Bermuda 35 0 11   0.00   0.00%
Cayman Islands 28 1 N/A        
Bahamas 24 1 1 1.00 1.00 50.00% 50.00%
Sint Maarten 23 2 1 0.50 2.00 33.33% 66.67%
Eritrea 22 0 0        
Gabon 21 1 N/A        
Myanmar 20 1 0 0.00   0.00%  
Tanzania 20 1 1 1.00 1.00 50.00% 50.00%
Guyana 19 4 N/A        
Maldives 19 0 13   0.00   0.00%
New Caledonia 18 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Haiti 18 0 N/A        
Syria 16 2 0 0.00   0.00%  
Equatorial Guinea 15 0 N/A        
Mongolia 14 0 2   0.00   0.00%
Namibia 14 0 0        
Benin 13 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Saint Lucia 13 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Fiji 12 0 0        
Libya 11 1 0 0.00   0.00%  
Curaçao 11 1 3 3.00 0.33 75.00% 25.00%
Greenland 10 0 2   0.00   0.00%
Seychelles 10 0 0        
Suriname 10 1 N/A        
Grenada 10 0 0        
Laos 10 0 N/A        
Mozambique 10 0 0        
Zimbabwe 9 1 0 0.00   0.00%  
Eswatini 9 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Guinea-Bissau 9 0 0        
Nepal 9 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Antigua and Barbuda 9 0 0        
St. Kitts and Nevis 9 0 0        
Sudan 8 2 N/A        
Angola 8 2 1 0.50 2.00 33.33% 66.67%
Central African Republic 8 0 3   0.00   0.00%
Chad 7 0 N/A        
Vatican City 7 0 N/A        
St. Barthélemy 6 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Cape Verde 6 1 0 0.00   0.00%  
Mauritania 6 1 2 2.00 0.50 66.67% 33.33%
Liberia 6 0 N/A        
Montserrat 5 0 N/A        
Turks and Caicos Islands 5 0 0        
Somalia 5 0 N/A        
Nicaragua 5 1 1 1.00 1.00 50.00% 50.00%
Bhutan 5 0 2   0.00   0.00%
The Gambia 4 1 2 2.00 0.50 66.67% 33.33%
Botswana 4 1 N/A        
Belize 3 0 0        
British Virgin Islands 3 0 0        
Anguilla 3 0 N/A        
Burundi 3 0 N/A        
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 3 0 1   0.00   0.00%
Malawi 3 0 N/A        
Sierra Leone 2 0 N/A        
Timor-Leste 1 0 N/A        
Papua New Guinea 1 0 0        
TBD              
TOTAL 1,183,023 64,977 247,641 3.81 0.26 79.22% 20.78%

如果我们去掉病例数小于800的地区,看到现在康复情况推算康复率结果比中国大陆还好的就是New Zealand,Iceland,Singapore,Hong Kong,Qatar,South Korea,Thailand,Germany,Australia,康复情况最差的就是United Kingdom,Netherlands,Denmark,Brazil,Sweden,Norway,Ireland,Serbia。

美国

UNITED STATES Cases Deaths Recovered Recovered divided by Deaths Deaths divided by Recovered pushback Recovered rate pushback Deaths rate
New York 113,704 3,914 10,478 2.68 0.37 72.80% 27.20%
New Jersey 34,124 846 N/A        
Michigan 14,225 540 N/A        
California 13,561 317 1 0.00 317.00 0.31% 99.69%
Louisiana 12,496 409 N/A        
Massachusetts 11,736 216 N/A        
Florida 11,545 195 N/A        
Pennsylvania 10,017 136 N/A        
Illinois 10,357 243 2 0.01 121.50 0.82% 99.18%
Washington 7,624 310 510 1.65 0.61 62.20% 37.80%
Georgia 6,383 208 N/A        
Texas 6,236 108 N/A        
Connecticut 5,276 165 N/A        
Colorado 4,565 126 N/A        
Indiana 3,953 116 N/A        
Ohio 3,739 102 N/A        
Tennessee 3,321 43 220 5.12 0.20 83.65% 16.35%
Maryland 3,125 53 81 1.53 0.65 60.45% 39.55%
Virginia 2,407 52 N/A        
North Carolina 2,438 28 N/A        
Missouri 2,113 37 N/A        
Arizona 2,019 52 N/A        
Wisconsin 1,916 37 16 0.43 2.31 30.19% 69.81%
Nevada 1,742 43 26 0.60 1.65 37.68% 62.32%
South Carolina 1,917 40 N/A        
Alabama 1,580 26 N/A        
Mississippi 1,455 35 N/A        
Utah 1,246 7 N/A        
Oklahoma 1,159 42 N/A        
Idaho 1,013 10 N/A        
Oregon 999 26 N/A        
District of Columbia 902 21 235 11.19 0.09 91.80% 8.20%
Kentucky 831 37 N/A        
Minnesota 789 22 410 18.64 0.05 94.91% 5.09%
Iowa 786 14 N/A        
Arkansas 743 14 80 5.71 0.18 85.11% 14.89%
Rhode Island 711 14 N/A        
Kansas 698 21 N/A        
New Hampshire 540 9 144 16.00 0.06 94.12% 5.88%
New Mexico 495 10 N/A        
Puerto Rico 452 18 N/A        
Maine 456 10 94 9.40 0.11 90.38% 9.62%
Delaware 450 14 49 3.50 0.29 77.78% 22.22%
Vermont 461 20 N/A        
Hawaii 319 3 49 16.33 0.06 94.23% 5.77%
Nebraska 321 6 N/A        
West Virginia 282 2 N/A        
Montana 265 6 N/A        
South Dakota 187 4 57 14.25 0.07 93.44% 6.56%
Wyoming 187 0 37   0.00   0.00%
North Dakota 173 3 55 18.33 0.05 94.83% 5.17%
Alaska 171 4 N/A        
Guam 84 4 14 3.50 0.29 77.78% 22.22%
Diamond Princess (repatriated) 46 0 2   0.00   0.00%
U.S. Virgin Islands 40 0 34   0.00   0.00%
Grand Princess 21 0 N/A        
Northern Mariana Islands 8 1 N/A        
Wuhan (repatriated) 3 0 N/A        
American Samoa 0 0 N/A        
TBD              
U.S. TOTAL 308,412 8,739 12,594 1.44 0.69 59.04% 40.96%

美国的病例数高且因为没有康复患者的,无法推算出康复率的地方,康复情况都很严重。

加拿大

CANADA Cases Deaths Recovered Recovered divided by Deaths Deaths divided by Recovered pushback Recovered rate pushback Deaths rate
Quebec 6,997 75 306 4.08 0.25 80.31% 19.69%
Ontario 3,630 97 1,219 12.57 0.08 92.63% 7.37%
British Columbia 1,174 35 641 18.31 0.05 94.82% 5.18%
Alberta 1,075 18 174 9.67 0.10 90.63% 9.38%
Saskatchewan 220 3 48 16.00 0.06 94.12% 5.88%
Nova Scotia 236 0 21   0.00   0.00%
Newfoundland & Labrador 195 1 11 11.00 0.09 91.67% 8.33%
Manitoba 182 2 11 5.50 0.18 84.62% 15.38%
New Brunswick 95 0 22   0.00   0.00%
Prince Edward Island 22 0 4   0.00   0.00%
Repatriated travellers 13 0 N/A        
Yukon 6 0 3   0.00   0.00%
Northwest Territories 4 0 N/A        
Nunavut 0 0 -        
TOTAL 13,849 231 2,460 10.65 0.09 91.42% 8.58%

澳大利亚

AUSTRALIA Cases Deaths Recovered Recovered divided by Deaths Deaths divided by Recovered pushback Recovered rate pushback Deaths rate
New South Wales 2,493 12 4 0.33 3.00 25.00% 75.00%
Victoria 1,115 8 527 65.88 0.02 98.50% 1.50%
Queensland 900 4 8 2.00 0.50 66.67% 33.33%
Western Australia 436 2 92 46.00 0.02 97.87% 2.13%
South Australia 407 0 46   0.00   0.00%
Canberra (ACT) 93 2 18 9.00 0.11 90.00% 10.00%
Tasmania 80 2 5 2.50 0.40 71.43% 28.57%
Northern Territory 26 0 1   0.00   0.00%
External territories 0 0 0        
Jervis Bay 0 0 0        
               
TOTAL 5,550 30 701 23.37 0.04 95.90% 4.10%

中国

MAINLAND CHINA Cases Deaths Recovered Recovered divided by Deaths Deaths divided by Recovered pushback Recovered rate pushback Deaths rate
Hubei province (includes Wuhan) 67,803 3,207 63,762 19.88 0.05 95.21% 4.79%
Guangdong province 1,450 8 1,357 169.63 0.01 99.41% 0.59%
Henan province 1,276 22 1,251 56.86 0.02 98.27% 1.73%
Zhejiang province 1,257 1 1,226 1226.00 0.00 99.92% 0.08%
Hunan province 1,018 4 1,014 253.50 0.00 99.61% 0.39%
Beijing 580 8 418 52.25 0.02 98.12% 1.88%
Shanghai 516 6 341 56.83 0.02 98.27% 1.73%
Other regions/TBD 7,739 70 7,386 105.51 0.01 99.06% 0.94%
Asymptomatic 1,710 0 232   0.00   0.00%
TOTAL 83,349 3,326 76,987 23.15 0.04 95.86% 4.14%

附录:

分析的数据来源:

bnonews 全球

bnonews 美国

bnonews 加拿大

bnonews 澳大利亚

bnonews 中国

非常好用的MKDOWN表格数据处理网站tableconvert.com

一个中文版本HTML5项目的用来展示推算的康复率和死亡率

个人认为为什么造成这种康复情况差别很大的可能原因,可以看这篇中文博客《提供一个COVID-19(2019-nCov)的攻克研究方向—–温度与身体免疫能力的关系》